Pressure eases on Myanmar inflation due to declining consumer demand

Declining consumer spending and demand as a result of COVID-19 has suppressed inflation levels in Myanmar. Inflationary pressure first showed signs of easing in March, after the first cases of the coronavirus were reported in Myanmar. Inflation has continued to decline over the past three months, settling at 7.9 percent in June. The trend of falling inflation is similar to the rest of the world. Consumers all over the world and in Myanmar are spending less due to COVID-19 restrictions. Domestic consumer demand is falling and this is resulting in softer inflation.

Inflation in Myanmar had in fact been on a steady rise before the pandemic. Local businesses have suffered as a result of poor consumer demand. Due to COVID-19, the majority of Myanmar firms have experienced lower sales and cash flow shortages, resulting in reduced access to credit needed to support operations. The survey also revealed that 16 percent of firms had temporarily closed their operations for an average of eight weeks as a results of COVID-19.

As a result, Myanmar’s inflation is forecast to fall further this year and remain at around 6pc until next year. Meanwhile, GDP growth is forecast to drop from 6.8 pc in fiscal 2018-19 to just 1.8pc in the current fiscal year. The World Bank’s forecasts are more dire, with GDP expected to slump to just 0.5pc last year. However, if the domestic spread of the coronavirus is brought under control and the global economy recovers swiftly, GDP could recover as soon as next year, reaching 6pc according to ADB and 7.2pc according to the World Bank.

Source: Myanmar Times

Myanmar’s border trade with neighboring countries sees US$ 8.6 billion

Myanmar’s border trade with neighbouring countries reached US$8.6 billion as of late July in the current financial year, an increase of over US$280 million compared to the same period of last financial year. Myanmar’s border trade with its neighbours was US$8.3 billion in the same period of financial year 2018-2019. Myanmar’s export volume through its borders fetched US$5.8 billion while the country’s import reached over US$2.7 billion. Muse border saw the largest volume and value of Myanmar’s total border trade, with an estimated value of over US$5.4 billion, followed by Myawady with US$858 million and Chinshwehaw with US$554 million during that period. The Sino-Myanmar border trade through all five border crossings has registered over US$4.7 billion in the current financial year, a decrease of US$123.5 million compared to the same period of last financial year, according to the ministry’s statistics.

Border trade with China was valued at US$3.89 billion through Muse border gate in this FY, US$123.35 million via Lweje, US$430.7 million via Chinshwehaw, US$263 million Myawady Trade Zone is Myanmar’s second largest border trading post. The decline in bilateral trade is attributed to the suspension and delay of some commodities amid the tight security measures of coronavirus. China has been beefing up border control measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus infection. China’s investment in Myanmar during the period from 1988 to date was valued at more than US$20 billion which is equivalent to about 26 per cent of total FDI in the country. The trade volume between Myanmar and Thailand has reached US$2.71 billion in total, a decrease of US$103.9 million compared to the same period of last year, according to ministry. The bilateral border trade saw US$2.82 billion in last year. Myanmar-Thailand border trade totalled US$2.711 billion between 1 October last year and early this year, which included US$1.95 billion in exports and US$757 million in imports. The Hteekhee border recorded the highest trade value of US$1.35 billion, followed by Myawady with US$820 million and Kawthoung with US$299 million. The country mainly conducts border trade with Thailand via seven borders Tachilek, Myawady, Kawthoung, Myeik, Hteekhee, Mawtaung and Mese checkpoints. Meanwhile, Myanmar-India border trade is down by over 40% for the current financial year due to the temporary closure of border posts amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The trade value went down from US$128 million to US$76 million for the same period, a decrease of 40% compared to the same period of last financial year. The two countries conduct border trade mainly through the Tamu, Reed, Thantlang, and Kenglap cross-border trade camps, while a major part of bilateral trade is carried out via the sea.

Myanmar-Bangladesh bilateral trade via border checkpoints was valued at over US$747.63 million as of 26 June in the current 2019-2020 financial year, an increase of US$730 million from the corresponding period of last
year. When compared with last FY, this FY saw a significant surge in the value of exports by US$427.42 million while the bilateral imports rose by US$302.96 million. Between 1 October last year and 26 June this year, Myanmar transported commodities worth US$443.4 million to Bangladesh and imported goods valued at over US$304.2 million. Myanmar exports goods to Bangladesh through both maritime and land routes. Myanmar mainly exports agricultural products, animal products, marine products, minerals, forest products, manufacturing goods and others while capital goods, intermediate goods to neighbouring countries and consumer goods, machinery and medicine are imported to the country. Around 20 percent of Myanmar’s total trade is conducted through its border crossings and the remaining 80 percent is done by sea route.

Source: The Global New Light of Myanmar