Myanmar Monthly Business Brief, March 2026

Economy

Myanmar’s parliamentary bodies such as Pyithu Hluttaw( Lower House) and Amyo Tha Hlutta (Upper House) were active in March. As of April 1, 2026, Myanmar’s parliamentary bodies and military representatives have elected three Vice Presidents: U Min Aung Hlaing (Lower House), Daw Nan Ni Ni Aye (Upper House), and U Nyo Saw (military appointee). A final parliamentary vote to select the President from these three candidates is expected shortly.

Fuel Crisis due to US, Israel- Iran Conflict

According to analysis published in the New York Post in March, Saudi Arabia has warned that if the war continues beyond April, oil prices could reach as high as $180 per barrel. Some sources estimate that prolonged conflict could keep prices in the range of $120 to $150. In any case, it is clear that fuel prices will remain high and are unlikely to fall sharply in the near term.

Past experience shows that a 10% increase in global oil prices reduces global economic growth by 0.15%, equivalent to a global loss of around $500 billion. This raises questions about whether the International Monetary Fund’s projected global growth rate of 3.3% for 2026 is achievable. Similarly, Myanmar’s projected GDP growth of 3.4% for 2026–2027 may also face significant challenges amid political changes and uncertainties.

Rising oil prices have also driven up transportation costs. Global maritime freight rates have increased by about threefold. For example, shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to the Middle East, which previously cost between $1,200 and $1,800, has risen to between $3,500 and $4,500 this month. Increased risks in maritime routes have also led to a fivefold increase in shipping insurance premiums.

Assessing the impact on Myanmar economy:

• Agricultural costs (plowing, harvesting, irrigation, transportation) is rising due to higher fuel prices, leading to higher farm-gate prices
• Production costs increase
• Transportation costs are rising
• Export competitiveness declines
• Inflationary pressures are likely to increase

Fuel Crisis and Trade Hurdles: The Myanmar people is battling a severe fuel crisis due to US-Iran conflict. Cars are lining up with use of barcode/QR code systems at filling station for 3-5 hours for one round and odd and even car driving regulation is continued. Express Bus prices for major routes have doubled, Taxi fares, air fares significantly increased. Transportation cost increase trough out supply chain.

Government departments urged to implement remote working every Wednesday

To proactively address potential fuel shortages arising from the conflict in the Middle East, the government has introduced the odd-even vehicle travelling rotation and fuel rationing purchase systems. Alongside these measures, the government is making every effort to secure fuel imports through various channels as much as possible. While current reserves remain sufficient, the government is taking preparatory steps for future possible energy challenges. To reduce fuel consumption, effective from 25 March 2026, all government officers and staff are required to perform their duties from their respective homes or hostels every Wednesday, rather than commuting to their offices. As the primary objective of this measure is fuel conservation, officers and staff must refrain from any non-essential travel or vehicle use on these designated days.

Private sector organizations and workplaces are also encouraged to follow the example of government departments by implementing “work from home” arrangements to the greatest extent possible.

Economic growth target for 2026-27

Although the National Planning Law 2026 is not come out yet, Myanmar’s junta projects 3.4% economic growth for the 2026–2027 financial year, targeting a GDP of 195,032 billion kyats. This optimistic outlook focuses on agriculture, SMEs, and state-backed investments. Conversely, international analysts such as the ADB forecast a more modest 2.0% growth for 2026 amid high.

Finance

The Myanmar Union Tax Law 2026

The Myanmar Union Tax Law 2026, effective April 1, 2026, primarily updates Specific Goods Tax (SGT) rates for tobacco and alcohol, removes SGT/Commercial Tax (CT) exemptions for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), and increases the income tax exemption threshold for start-ups to MMK 20 million annually.

Key Changes in the 2026 Union Tax Law:

• Electric Vehicles (BEV): SGT exemption for BEVs is removed, subjecting them to a 5% rate. A 5% CT now applies to two- and three-wheeler BEVs, batteries, and components, though charging services remain exempt. SKD, CKD import to Myanmar enjoy Zero percent tax.
• Start-up Incentives: The annual net income exemption for newly established small and medium-sized businesses is increased to MMK 20,000,000 for three consecutive years (previously MMK 15 million).
• Specific Goods Tax (SGT): Rates and value tiers for cigarettes, cheroots, liquor, and wine have been increased.
• Tax Rates and Exemptions: Corporate income tax, personal income tax, capital gains tax, and jewelry tax rates remain unchanged.
• Taxpayer Information: The relevant ministry is authorized to request detailed taxpayer information from various state institutions, including the Central Bank of Myanmar and regional governments.
• Compliance & Administration: The law reinforces the use of the official Internal Revenue Department online payment system and highlights that tax payments must be made in the currency in which income was earned.

The 2026 law represents a continuation of policies targeting higher luxury goods taxes while fostering tech-driven, small-business initiatives.

FE market rate stabled; Gold Prices Fluctuate

The kyat depreciated to K4,215 per US dollar on average at market rate in March. The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) intervened throughout the month, selling millions of US dollars, yuan, and baht to stabilize the exchange rate and support imports of essential goods. CBM injected US dollars 170 million and  Baht 87 million in March, into the edible oil, fuel, and CMP sectors.

16 Peye Gold price was stabled throughout the month at 11 million kyats per tickle for selling in March.  Domestic fuel prices increased over K 4,450-4,975 per litre in Octane and K 5,450-6,085 in diesel at end of March. Fuel prices increased doubled in February prices.

Trade

India Extends Pulse Import Policy on Myanmar pulses and beans

The Indian government has agreed to import 250,000 tons of black gram and 200,000 tons of pigeon peas from Myanmar with tariff exemptions starting in April 2026. Additionally, both countries have agreed to sign a five-year memorandum of understanding on pulse trade.

Notably, India has increased the tariff-free quota for pigeon peas from 100,000 tons in previous years to 200,000 tons this year. Since the Indian market is policy-driven rather than purely market-driven, Myanmar could secure a stable export market for pulses if managed effectively and maintaining India’s status as a key trade partner.

Energy

MoE announcement on fuel distribution and pricing

THE Ministry of Energy has implemented of Barcode and QR Code systems at petrol stations. In order to prevent fuel shortages and ensure that those in genuine need can purchase fuel conveniently, a new system was launched on 12 March 2026.Under this system, the barcode included on a motor vehicle’s Wheel Tax certificate, and the data contained on a motorcycle’s certificate, are used to generate specific QR codes. These codes are verified via a mobile application at the time of purchase. Continuous efforts are being made to enhance the software and technical infrastructure to improve efficiency and user convenience.

International fuel prices have been rising sharply. Compared to prices before the global oil crisis, international petrol prices have increased by over 70 per cent, while diesel has risen by more than 100 per cent. Despite this, the Government and the Myanmar Petroleum Trade Association are cooperating to maintain domestic stability.

National fuel reserves are currently sufficient for approximately 40 days of petrol and 50 days of diesel. The Ministry of Energy committed to the fair and sufficient distribution of fuel across the country and kindly requests the continued cooperation of the public.

Official Fuel prices increased by 100% in filling stations while fuel prices reach 2-3 times higher than official prices by K 10,000-15,000 per liter in black market.

Telecommunication

Public Notice on Adoption of CEIR System

Ministry of Transport and Telecommunication announced to use CEIR system. In some countries around the world, the original identification number (International Mobile Equipment Identity – IMEI Code) of mobile network communication devices, including mobile handsets and devices such as iPads, tablets, and notebooks, is required to be registered in the Central Equipment Identity Register (CEIR), enabling them to be connected and used with telecommunications networks within the country.

In Myanmar, for the public who use mobile handsets to confidently use devices that meet standards and for which the required taxes to the State have been duly paid, the Central Equipment Identity Register (CEIR) system will be adopted starting from the first week of March 2026.

Mobile handsets currently being used by the public will automatically be registered in the CEIR permitted list so that users can continue using them without the need to pay any additional tax. To ensure inclusion in this approved list, it is necessary to insert and activate SIM cards from telecommunications networks (MPT, ATOM, U9, Mytel) in the mobile handset and use them no later than 31 March 2026.

Companies wishing to import mobile handsets and other mobile communication devices from abroad must apply for the required licences in accordance with the procedures. After paying the taxes, the devices will be included in the CEIR-approved list.

Starting from 1 April 2026, mobile handsets that are not included in the approved list will be granted a temporary usage period of 30 days from the time they are first connected to a mobile communication network. During this period, users must pay the required taxes and penalties to continue using the devices.

Users entered the International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) of their mobile handset on https://www.ceir.gov.mm and pay the required taxes and penalties through electronic payment methods.

For people living in border areas or regions with limited internet access, the required taxes and penalties can also be paid at the offices of the Internal Revenue Department or the Customs Department located in those areas.